Joel’s Market Pulse - Q1/2026

In this Q1/2026 Market Pulse, Joel Liukkonen takes us through the current state of the IT service market after another challenging year and what the situation looks like for tech professionals heading into 2026.

Despite some positive signals emerging in the second half of 2025, the market remains far from a full recovery, as geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and cautious investment continue to keep growth expectations low across the industry.

IT Service market 2025 recap

Negative organic growth

The year 2025 overall wasn’t much better for the IT service sector than the year before and the landscape remained difficult throughout the year. Based on Inderes, publicly listed IT service companies have had negative organic growth for the second year in a row. However, it can be noted that the situation between companies differ quite much, organic growth varying between double digit negative to highly positive growth. It can be also seen from average organic growth being much smaller than the mediane. There have been clear winners in privately held companies that have grown even double digits last year.

The trend was positive for the H2 of 2026 as the organic growth of these companies climbed back to the positive side. This gives hope that the rock bottom has already been seen. Whereas the fact still is that the 2024 organic growth was -2.7% for publicly listed companies and for 2025 it was -3.4%, highlighting the difficult market for the companies and tech professionals, the H2 provided much-needed positive signals for the market.

Good EBIT level

While the growth has been lacking, many of these companies have been able to keep their EBIT on a good level. This can be partially explained by the many change negotiations which were done to reduce the costs and fight the realised bench risks. One might wonder how much of a bench these companies still have, which remains unknown as no clear information could be found on this from public sources.

Overall, it can be said that last year was partly a continuum of the year 2024 for the IT service market and no drastic bounce back was seen. While the second half of the year showed many positive signs, the whole year was negative in terms of growth. The positive side was demand going up for the second part of the year, giving a slightly more hopeful outlook.

IT Service market 2026

Still uncertainty

The second half of the year 2025 was slightly positive compared to the previous halves, yet the expectations for the year 2026 cannot be overly optimistic. The bounce back has been long awaited yet it is unlikely that a seriously better market is seen in 2026. The biggest risks are still related to the instability of the world economy and potentially companies' hesitation to invest in development caused by it. The geopolitical crisis and unexpected shocks may cause negative shocks for customer companies. Meanwhile the AI adoption may disrupt the industry, however, the effects are still unknown.

Inderes expects the organic growth of publicly listed companies to be on average -0.3% with mediane being 1%. After two difficult years, it is fair to say that the expectations are rather a bit pessimistic than optimistic. They also mention that there are uncertainties related to the Iran war and its effects on the global economy.

Variation between companies

However, there might be clear winners in terms of growth as the last two years have been clearly different for different companies and the market hasn’t been homogeneous. Companies specialised in data and AI as well as military related development might have huge potential while companies serving for example public sector clients are still likely to be affected by cost savings of the sector.

Overall, the positive thing is that the negative trend is not expected to continue which can be seen as a win itself. Moreover, IT Service sector companies are expecting to grow this year which could indicate positive signals.

IT professionals’ situation in 2026

Unemployment

As the situation of companies varies much, the same thing applies to individual professionals. Overall, the last two years have been difficult for the workforce compared to booming times in the early 2020s. There were no specific statistics found of unemployment rate among IT professionals to compare the situation between the last years but based on TEK research, the unemployment rate of international technology experts has increased from 3% (2024) to 7% (2025). This gives insight how difficult the situation has been among all IT professionals throughout the year.

Company restructurings and limited opportunities for juniors

Also, like discussed in the previous market pulses (Q4/2025 and Q2/2025), there has been multiple rounds of change negotiations as well as hiring freezes. Good to highlight also that the situation is extremely worrying for the juniors and recent graduates as getting the first job may have become overly difficult for many. The situation has caused less people to apply for ICT related degrees as well.

Data, AI and cybersecurity skills on demand

While the situation for many have been extremely difficult and the competition for the jobs and projects have been high, there have been clear winners as well among the IT professionals. Certain people like data and AI experts as well as cybersecurity experts have seen quite stable demand over the years. Also, AI-native professionals have been much wanted by many companies.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the year 2026 would provide a much brighter outlook for the IT professionals. However, based on Thriv statistics the senior and architect level people have still had relatively stable demand and even longer project time. The big picture is that the job and project market remains highly competitive which might push down hourly prices.

AI disruption

Reducing headcount due to AI?

Lately there has been interesting news as Relex and Etteplan started change negotiations this year that were said to be caused by AI. These are likely to be the first examples in the Finnish market that AI is claimed to reduce the need for human workforce. Whereas, AI is likely to increase productivity in the long-term and the explanation has been seen in different countries previously as well, it is healthy to be a bit skeptical whether AI is really causing the need for change negotiations or if it’s used as “a cover story” to reduce headcount for cost savings.

This is something to keep an eye on if new companies in the near future, reason their change negotiations by AI. However, it might be difficult to analyse whether the real reason has been well-working AI adoption or some other reasons.

AI skills giving a competitive advantage

Meanwhile, it is expected that IT professionals as well as others need to develop their skills with the technology to stay relevant in the market. The ones mastering the new reality create competitive advantage for themselves at least on a medium term.

This is also a chance for juniors and recent graduates to stand out and close the gap between other skills. While experience brings confidence and certainty, the new technologies also open possibilities.

Lastly, when reading social media many people are worried about the future employment market. While the fear is justified, the real worry is the companies’ future, if no investment is done to bring younger people into the system and train them. It’s concerning if we are missing a whole generation of talented young people for not giving them a chance to show their skills and develop. Whereas investing in new technologies is lucrative, the real winners of tomorrow still focus on people as well.